PhD Public Defense, Umair Uddin Shaikh

Title: Identifying Cohesive Categories of Factors Affecting Persistence and Dropout, and Examining the Transformative Impact of More Knowledgeable Others on Online Learners' Self-efficacy and Self-deterministic Beliefs
PhD Public Defense: Umair Uddin Shaikh, PhD scholar, Department of Computer Science, IBA
Advisor: Dr. Zaheeruddin Asif
External Examiners:
Dr. Noman Islam (Professor of Computer Science at Iqra University) and Dr. Syed Safdar Ali Rizvi (Professor of Computer Science at Bahria University, Karachi)
Date: February 28, 2025, at 10:00 AM
Venue:Tabba Conference Room, Tabba Academic Block, Second Floor, Main Campus, IBA Karachi

Abstract
The rapid development, advancement, and integration of social and educational technologies are driving a noticeable shift in modern education. This shift is clearly evidenced by the growing prevalence of online learning. Teachers and students embrace the convenience, availability, and innovative teaching and learning methods that online learning offers. The widespread technology adoption in educational settings not only allows easy access to educational resources but also fosters a dynamically engaging virtual learning experience. This change offers students from various backgrounds the possibility of collaborating with their peers and communicating with teachers in real-time, despite the physical distance. The ease and flexibility of online courses have made them a popular choice in modern educational settings. In the wake of the worldwide disruption spawned by the COVID-19 outbreak, online learning became a crucial and well-accepted means of pursuing academic endeavours. With the pandemic's unprecedented obstacles, a swift and significant transition to virtual education was imperative. During these challenging times, online learning has emerged as the predominant method for continuing academic activities worldwide, prompting experts to regard it as a viable substitute for traditional face-to-face education.

Despite the convenience and advantages, online courses and programs often encounter unexpectedly low completion rates. This not only results in financial setbacks for online education providers, making it difficult for them to sustain their operations, but also leads to frustration and a decline in self-esteem among online learners, which may discourage them from enrolling in future online courses. These low completion rates have a negative impact as they hinder the full realization of the potential of online learning, affecting all stakeholders involved in the delivery and support of online education. Addressing this issue is critical for ensuring the continuous growth and success of online learning and maximizing the benefits for both online learning providers and learners. Developing and implementing effective strategies that not only enhance completion rates but also improve the overall quality and efficacy of online education is essential to create a positive and rewarding experience for all participants.

Although attempts have been made by various researchers and experts to investigate this alarming problem, institutions, online course providers, and various other stakeholders still seek a solution to this pressing issue. This may be attributed to the divergent frameworks and approaches utilized in past studies, leading to a lack of cohesion in addressing factors related to persistence and dropout. Typically, these factors have been examined in isolation, further contributing to the fragmented nature of the research on the subject. This highlights the necessity for further explorations into the quality of online learning from a new and improved perspective, thus motivating the current research.

This research aims to investigate the impact of Vygotsky's concept of More Knowledgeable Others (MKO) scaffolding on online learners' self-determination, self-efficacy, and learning outcomes, particularly in relation to persistence and dropout decisions in post-secondary education. To achieve this, the research employed a two-fold approach.

Firstly, within the context of post-secondary education, it focuses on developing a comprehensive framework comprised of logically cohesive categories of relevant factors pertaining to persistence and dropout. This framework diverges from the traditional linear perspective on these factors by acknowledging and exploring the interactive and synergistic effects of various factors. An extensive review of past research dating back to 2001 was conducted. Studies were reviewed from databases (such as Education Research Complete, ProQuest, ERIC, JSTOR, and PsycInfo) using keywords like 'online,' 'persistence,' and 'dropout.' The search was further expanded through Google Scholar and the snowball technique. During screening, duplicates, non-empirical, non-peer-reviewed, and irrelevant studies were excluded. The final selection was based on a rigorous review of abstracts. After identifying relevant factors, the Constant Comparative Method (CCM) was used to categorize them into logical groupings with explicit coding and analytical procedures

Secondly, during the review of the factors, we have identified that the sense of Isolation, less engagement, uncertain beliefs in own capabilities, and diminished motivation are identified by many researchers as important factors leading to dropout decisions from online classes. Therefore, following the establishment of the logically cohesive categories of factors, this research further explores the impact of Vygotsky's concept of More Knowledgeable Others (MKO) scaffolding on the learner's self-determination and self-efficacy beliefs. These two factors stand out as the most influential in terms of persistence and dropout, presented within the behavioural and psychological attributes of the online learners' category we have developed. Self-determined motivation improves learners' perceptions of online classes, helping them to persist. Similarly, positive self-efficacy increases resilience in the cases of obstacles, thus intensifying learning efforts. Given the context of this study, finally, the impact of these beliefs on two learning outcomes, namely, Perceived learning and Retention Intention, is validated. Employing the multifaceted perspectives offered by Self-Determination and Self-Efficacy theories, the research model is proposed and validated through structural equation modelling (SEM).

Within this study, the premise is established by introducing MKO intervention as contextual support. SEM analysis suggests that MKO intervention has a significant positive effect on the self-deterministic and self-efficacy beliefs of an online learner with p < .001 and p < .1 respectively. This support positively influences the basic needs of the learner (p < .001), ultimately leading to a significant enhancement of self-determined motivation (p < .001). Positive influences of self-determined motivation are observed on perceived learning (p < .1) and retention intention (p < .1), the learning outcomes within the scope of this study. Furthermore, the analysis has also revealed that MKO intervention has significant effects on self-efficacy, thereby, leading to improved learning outcomes, that is, perceived learning (p < .001) and retention Intention (p < .01).

This study has some limitations. Despite using the Constant Comparative Method (CCM), some factors influencing persistence and dropout may not have been fully captured, given the complexity of online education. Ethical considerations around participant confidentiality limited the depth of contextual insights, and the quality of interactions between MKOs and learners was not evaluated due to the lack of standardized assessment tools. Lastly, the focus on MKO intervention could be expanded in future research to include other factors like resilience and peer support.